Ethereum Price Drops Below $2,600
Ethereum entered October trading close to $2,700, but selling pressure intensified as the week progressed. The price briefly traded around $2,700 early Wednesday before falling through the $2,600 level. During the afternoon session, ETH traded between roughly $2,550 and $2,580, while intraday lows were reported around $2,540 to $2,555.
At the time of the move, Ethereum was down approximately 4.7% to 5.5% for the day, with 24-hour trading volume ranging from about $15 billion to $19 billion. Ethereum price data showed how quickly market conditions had changed after ETH spent the opening days of October hovering below $2,700.
The decline also came as U.S. spot Ether ETFs recorded their sixth consecutive day of net outflows. Around $405 million to $408 million had reportedly left the funds during the streak, adding another source of selling pressure to an already weaker market.
Ether Liquidations Add to the Pressure
Derivatives activity also intensified during the decline. Ethereum liquidation metrics on CoinGlass placed Ether long liquidations at approximately $155 million to $165 million as ETH moved sharply lower.
Long liquidations occur when leveraged traders betting on higher prices are forced out of their positions as the market falls. Such liquidations can amplify short-term price moves because positions are automatically closed when traders no longer have enough collateral to support them.
With ETH moving into the $2,500 area, the roughly $2,500 to $2,560 range has emerged as an important near-term zone. The market's reaction around that area could determine whether the latest decline develops into a deeper move or stabilizes after the sharp selloff.
Polymarket Gives Ethereum a 49% Chance of Reaching $3,000
Prediction markets are offering a mixed picture of where Ethereum could go next. On Polymarket's Ethereum 2026 price market, traders have placed approximately $17.3 million in volume behind different potential price outcomes.
With ETH trading around $2,565, the market currently gives Ethereum about a 49% probability of reaching $3,000 before 2027. That puts the target almost directly at a coin flip.
The probabilities decline at higher price levels. Ethereum reaching $3,500 is priced at roughly 20%, while the odds of ETH touching $4,000 stand near 11%. A move to $5,000 has only about a 4% probability in the market.
The downside scenarios also remain significant. Polymarket traders assign approximately a 37% chance of Ethereum reaching $2,250 and a 20% chance of touching $2,000 before year-end. The probability of ETH falling as far as $1,500 is around 7%.
Myriad Sees $3,000 Winning the Race
A different prediction market presents a considerably more optimistic setup. Myriad's Ethereum next-move market asks whether Ethereum will reach $3,000 or $1,500 first.
Traders currently give the $3,000 outcome a 73.7% probability, compared with 26.3% for $1,500. The contract has recorded roughly $152,000 in volume and, importantly, does not have a fixed expiration date.
That distinction helps explain why Myriad's numbers look much more bullish than Polymarket's. Myriad is measuring which of two price levels Ethereum reaches first, while Polymarket is measuring whether particular prices are reached before the end of the year.
As a result, the two probabilities should not be treated as direct forecasts of the same event. The different deadlines and market structures produce different outcomes even though both contracts are focused on Ethereum's future price.
Kalshi Forecast Centers Around $2,720
Kalshi provides a third perspective. Its year-end Ethereum market has generated more than $12.1 million in volume and currently points toward a price of roughly $2,720.
The market's visible price brackets show a 15.2% probability of Ethereum finishing between $2,250 and $2,499.99. Another 13.6% probability is assigned to a finish between $2,500 and $2,749.99.
The settlement methodology is also different from simply checking Ethereum's price at a single moment. The final result is based on the average of 60 seconds of the CF Benchmarks ETHUSD Real Time Index immediately before midnight EST on Jan. 1, 2027.
That methodology means Kalshi is effectively looking for Ethereum's year-end reference price rather than whether ETH briefly touches a particular level during the remaining months.
Three Markets, Three Different Ethereum Outlooks
The contrasting probabilities highlight why prediction-market data needs to be viewed within the rules of each individual contract.
Polymarket gives Ethereum roughly a 49% chance of reaching $3,000 before the end of the year. Myriad gives ETH a 73.7% probability of reaching $3,000 before $1,500, with no fixed expiration date. Kalshi, meanwhile, places its year-end forecast around $2,720.
These figures are not necessarily contradictory. Each market measures a different event, uses different settlement conditions and operates on a different time horizon.
For Ethereum, the immediate challenge remains the recovery of the $2,600 area after the latest breakdown. At the same time, prediction markets show that traders have not abandoned the possibility of a return to $3,000. Instead, their expectations vary substantially depending on whether the question is about a year-end price, a specific target being reached, or which of two distant levels Ethereum reaches first.
